Chip off the old blockade
Iran, Israel, Spain, Argentina, and Cuba.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump gropes for leverage and offramps.
ISRAEL. As elections approach, Netanyahu is squeezed.
SPAIN. The stakes get more personal for Sanchez.
ARGENTINA. Two nationalist fixations threaten to collide.
CUBA. Power failures and drone claims raise the heat.
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IRAN. Shooting in the dark
Trump gropes for leverage and offramps.
Donald Trump withdrew a threat to tax Hormuz cargos but launched new strikes on Iran and declared another naval blockade. Tehran withdrew from the ceasefire MoU and said it would exercise "full sovereignty... no matter the costs."
INTELLIGENCE. Strikes continue in both directions, including on Iranian infrastructure, with Trump reprising old threats to destroy power plants and bridges. He is also reprising old tactics of jawboning the markets, claiming “oil is flowing like never before” and “the Strait of Hormuz is open to ALL”. Crude futures remain elevated from last week. It is clear Trump is trying to both escalate and de-escalate out of a crisis, but it’s unclear if either approach will work.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s confused approach seems less 3D chess or madman theory than online chest-beating and old-man fist-shaking. And as the strategic quagmire deepens, the political heat of Epstein and E Jean Carroll is returning as acting Attorney General Todd Blanche fronts Congress. Trump is thus incentivised to throw a wildcard into the mix, at least until he no longer needs it. Axios reported late Tuesday that he is mulling a “massive offensive”.
ISRAEL. In Bibi's bonnet
As elections approach, Netanyahu is squeezed.
New polls showed Benjamin Netanyahu trailing Gadi Eisenkot as preferred prime minister as his coalition passed new Haredi draft and West Bank settlement bills ahead of the Knesset’s dissolution on Friday. Talks resumed with Lebanon.
INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu’s coalition of once-fringe parties has made him