Chum in the water
Iran, Israel, Syria, Lebanon, the UK, Ireland, Colombia, and Ecuador.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump is losing allies as fast as Tehran loses leaders.
ISRAEL. The covenant with the West begins to fray.
SYRIA. LEBANON. The Levant’s ethnic fabric is thrown to the wind.
BRITAIN. IRELAND. Old disputes give way to new pragmatism.
COLOMBIA. ECUADOR. A diplomatic clash becomes kinetic.
And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.
IRAN. From the jaws of victory
Trump is losing allies as fast as Tehran loses leaders.
Donald Trump rebuked NATO Tuesday, saying he had the power to leave the alliance. Meanwhile, his top counter-terrorism official resigned, Ali Larijani was killed, and the USS Gerald R Ford, having caught fire, left for repairs in Crete.
INTELLIGENCE. The aircraft carrier suffered a fire in the laundry, damaging crew berths. It was almost certainly not hit by Iran, but rumours of mutinous sabotage may be worse. The US and Israel continue to pound Iran militarily, but in doing so, they’re losing friends while no nearer to a resolution, including for oil from the Strait of Hormuz (unless it’s on Iran’s terms and paid for in RMB). Leaving NATO needs Congress’s approval, but the threat is no longer empty.
FOR BUSINESS. Counter-terrorism official Joe Kent was a contentious choice. People leave government all the time. But his claim of US policy being beholden to Israel has highlighted the self-limiting nature of Trump’s approach to war, trade and diplomacy. Also self-limiting may be Larijani’s assassination. As a rare pragmatist with hardliner influence, he was seen as a conduit for future de-escalation. Either that isn’t wanted, or it reflects yet more bad advice.
ISRAEL. The path less chosen
The covenant with the West begins to fray.
Turkey slammed Israel's "delusion of promised lands to apocalyptic scenarios" as the UK’s Guardian said diplomats saw Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner as "Israeli assets". An NBC poll showed US support for Israel had dropped to 32%.
INTELLIGENCE. Turkey, let alone Britain’s bien-pensant media, has seldom been pro-