Clock in the henhouse
Iran, Israel, Ukraine, Russia, the Sahel, and the Congo.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump sets the timer on another game of chicken.
ISRAEL. Netanyahu prepares a re-election bid built on isolation.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Drone attacks and a slowdown bring the war to Moscow.
THE SAHEL. Islamist whac-a-mole continues, often at cross-purposes.
DR CONGO. The WHO declares another Ebola emergency.
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IRAN. Counting TACOs before they hatch
Trump sets the timer on another game of chicken.
Donald Trump said the “clock was ticking” and Iran “better get moving, fast, or there won’t be anything left”. Drones hit the perimeter of a UAE nuclear plant. Saudi Arabia intercepted three drones from Iraq. A US drone was downed in Yemen.
INTELLIGENCE. Tehran has not been directly tied to the incidents in Saudi Arabia or the UAE, but they’re likely to have come from Iranian proxies, possibly in response to a call for the Emirates to test Iranian positions by seizing the island of Lavan, which it secretly struck on 8 April. Amid a stalemate at Hormuz, talk of military escalation has revived, with more US C-17 transport aircraft seen in the region and Trump to allegedly convene the situation room tomorrow.
FOR BUSINESS. Oil prices have climbed, but it may be yet another set-up for a TACO trade. The same Axios journalist behind an alleged pump-and-dump move by White House officials reported the situation room “scoop” on Sunday. Trump, who started the war between canapes in Mar-a-Lago, doesn’t need a National Security Council briefing. And by ending a sanctions waiver for Russian crude, the Treasury isn’t acting as if the oil shortage is about to get worse.
ISRAEL. Unpopularity contest
Netanyahu prepares a re-election bid built on isolation.
Israel came under fresh criticism after footage of settler violence against Palestinian villagers, nuns and animals spread across social media. Benjamin Netanyahu admitted Israel had taken over 60% of Gaza’s territory, despite the ceasefire.
INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu is expected to shortly announce an election date once he