Closure and no cigar
Iran, the Caucasus, Germany, France, North Korea, and Peru.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Attacks cease, but Hormuz remains blocked.
THE CAUCASUS. Putin adjusts his approach to former satellites.
GERMANY. FRANCE. A jet program dies, but the defence boom lives.
NORTH KOREA. Xi’s visit is about primacy, not priority.
PERU. Keiko Fujimori risks losing once again.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.
IRAN. A pause, not peace
Attacks cease, but Hormuz remains blocked.
Israel and Iran said they would pause attacks “for now” after Donald Trump said he had warned Benjamin Netanyahu “you will be on your own very soon.” Trump said the US would declare “total victory” within two weeks. Oil futures fell.
INTELLIGENCE. Despite the evidence to the contrary, markets are once again pricing a happy end to the conflict. Trump’s remarks mirror those at the end of last year’s Twelve-Day War, when he called time on Iran and Israel. But today, the US has not struck a conclusive blow, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and the IDF remains ensconced in Lebanon. Trump’s strategy has been to put a ceiling on the price of oil, but in doing so, he’s given Iran strategic licence.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump is managing short-term oil markets while giving Iran long-term options. Tehran is less likely to relinquish its control of Hormuz while it faces fewer risks of response from Israel and Washington. Iran’s escalation dominance is also underscored by the Houthis’ declaration of Bab-el-Mandeb’s closure to Israeli-linked shipping (with the stated option for a full blockade). Iran has called Trump’s bluff, giving it more room to set terms for a settlement.
THE CAUCASUS. Armenia and dangerous
Putin adjusts his approach to former satellites.
Armenia’s EU-friendly Civil Contract was declared winner of Sunday’s vote, though two pro-Russia parties did better than expected and will enter parliament. Russia said Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had no “monopoly” on Armenia’s future.
INTELLIGENCE. Russia will use the opposition to slow Armenia's pivot to the West