Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
SAUDI ARABIA. YEMEN. France moves to protect the Red Sea.
IRAN. Another seven-day ultimatum as mortgage rates breach 7%.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu’s insouciance shapes the election.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Hybrid warnings should be put in the past tense.
CHINA. UNITED STATES. Xi and Trump play nice at Taiwan’s expense.
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SAUDI ARABIA. YEMEN. C’est up to you
France moves to protect the Red Sea.
Emmanuel Macron said he would send troops to Yanbu as the Houthis claimed strikes on the port’s oil terminal and the capital, Riyadh. Saudi Arabia’s grand mufti told border guards to be ready to “be sacrificed in seeking Allah’s pleasure.”
INTELLIGENCE. With both the Houthis and the Saudis claiming divine authority, it’s hard to see the war ending quickly. Macron hasn’t invoked the supreme being, but may yet if this becomes another Suez debacle. Still, with the US threatening diesel, Russia fighting Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia diverting cargoes to Asia via Hormuz, the move may be Europe’s only choice before winter. Greece is already on the ground, claiming to have intercepted the Houthi missile.
FOR BUSINESS. France’s ground presence, in addition to Greece’s, may drag others from the EU’s Red Sea Aspides mission and the US’s Prosperity Guardian. China and India, which also operate independent patrols, including from the multiple bases in nearby Djibouti, may be pushed to increase their support. Saudi Arabia has held consultations with Pakistan and Turkey under its new defence pact. Iran has begun to distance itself from the Houthis’ activities.
IRAN. Dance of the seven veiled warnings
Another seven-day ultimatum as mortgage rates breach 7%.
Brent prices whipsawed between $104 and $107 amid reports of a “phased deal” to be agreed within seven days. US 30-year mortgage rates hit 7.12% as 30-year Treasury yields hit a 19-year high. Iran said it was up to the US to end the war.
INTELLIGENCE. With as many hints of an imminent deal as declarations of victory in