Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The chances of an October non-surprise mount.
ETHIOPIA. ERITREA. Egypt ain’t the only one in denial.
DR CONGO. Kinshasa struggles to multitask.
HAITI. Elections are postponed, in a win for the gangs.
EUROPE. The smug, slow and steady may yet win the race.
You’re reading one of today’s five analyses.
Subscribe to read all five, every weekday.
IRAN. No-good options
The chances of an October non-surprise mount.
Oil prices rose after the Atlantic said the Pentagon had been tasked to prepare options for an attack on Iran before the midterms. Axios said Israel might participate, following a phone call between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.
INTELLIGENCE. Wednesday’s call, reportedly the second within days, was ostensibly about the anniversary of the October 2023 massacre, yet both Trump and Netanyahu, facing elections within weeks, are looking to the future. Oil prices aren’t falling, and the war looks inconclusive. The Hormuz “oil shuttle” is showing strain as Iranian strikes increase. Uncertainty persists in Saudi Arabia, with three killed in a Houthi strike. Another roll of the dice beckons.
FOR BUSINESS. The leaks may suggest a strike is actually unlikely, yet more than preparing the Iranians, the US (and Israel) are preparing the voters, many of whom seem keener to have things wrapped up than risk the worsening of an already-bad situation. Yet conventional strikes are unlikely to be conclusive and retaliation, including on Gulf oil infrastructure, would surely follow. Unless Trump is willing to go nuclear, or put boots on the ground, he’s still stuck.
ETHIOPIA. ERITREA. Source of the problem
Egypt ain't the only one in denial.
Ethiopia accused Eritrea of invading its territory after its troops were spotted in Adigrat, the second city of Tigray State. Ethiopia earlier retook Tigray’s capital, Mekelle. The African Union denied it had blamed Egypt for escalating tensions.
INTELLIGENCE. Fighting has resumed between Ethiopia and the Tigray People's