Computer says no
China, the US, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, the UK, and the Horn of Africa.
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The five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. CHINA. Exemptions may boost equities but not confidence.
UNITED STATES. IRAN. A deal is only as good as its counterparts.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump’s need for speed is exploited by Putin.
BRITAIN. Problems with China complicate transatlantic hedging.
HORN OF AFRICA. A broken region invites brazen statecraft..
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UNITED STATES. CHINA. Fold on tight
Exemptions may boost equities but not confidence.
Donald Trump said an exclusion on electronics, published late Friday, would be "just moving to a different tariff bucket". Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said technology and semiconductors would face new duties within two months.
INTELLIGENCE. Firms like Apple will see their shares rebound, with their Chinese-sourced goods spared from 145% tariffs, but economic uncertainty will only be compounded by the weekend's mixed messages. Reports Scott Bessant was ready to resign before tech tariffs were rolled back will be revived by Lutnick's intervention. Mirroring the feud between advisers Elon Musk and Peter Navarro, their increasingly open dispute is becoming yet another market risk.
FOR BUSINESS. While outwardly loyal to Trump, Bessant is seen by many in the market as one of the few internal constraints on the president's thinking (one of the White House's "angels" in the words of Senator Ted Cruz). Should he leave an increasingly rickety ship, all bets are off. In the meantime, China, among others, will see an opening for influence and pressure, allowing it to hold fast to its own 125% tariffs while Trump (plus Lutnick et al) take the blame.
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UNITED STATES. IRAN. Talk is cheap
A deal is only as good as its counterparts.
US and Iranian negotiators said they held "constructive" talks in Oman and agreed to meet again next Saturday. Donald Trump said he expected to make a decision “very quickly”. Israel said Sunday it had intercepted a missile from Yemen.
INTELLIGENCE. Washington described the talks, again, as direct. Oman and Iran said they were indirect. The ongoing