Cowboy and India

India, the US, Brazil, the EU, Lithuania, and plastics.

William Fullerton of Rosemount, EIC Surgeon in Patna, and Mayor of Calcutta, receiving a visitor, Dip Chand, 1764, watercolour, Victoria and Albert Museum, London.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• INDIA. UNITED STATES. Trump's gamble on Russian oil could backfire.

• BRAZIL. UNITED STATES. Tensions deepen as Bolsonaro is arrested.

• EUROPE. UNITED STATES. Brussels buys time for drawn-out negotiations.

• LITHUANIA. A change of leadership at an inopportune time.

• ENVIRONMENT. Talks restart on a global plastics treaty.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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INDIA. UNITED STATES. Raja roulette

Trump's gamble on Russian oil could backfire.

Donald Trump said Monday he would "substantially" raise tariffs on Indian exports due to Delhi's "massive" purchasing and resale of Russian crude oil. Forward markets indicated Tuesday the rupee could hit an all-time low of 88 to the dollar.

INTELLIGENCE. India's purchases are nothing new. Its resale of refined products to the West is no secret. Many in Europe will welcome Washington’s newfound commitment to closing a gap in the economic war against Moscow, but Delhi, a normally sympathetic counterpart, sees this as manifestly unfair. China, with which Trump is seeking a deal, buys almost as much crude. Russia, while facing an escalating war of words, will this week host Steve Witkoff.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump may see India as a softer target through which to broadcast wider threats. Going after China could endanger his chances of meeting Xi Jinping. Going after Russia could exacerbate a war of words with Dmitry Medvedev, involving threats on nuclear submarines and missile treaties. Russian social media, without evidence but likely with Kremlin consent, has separately recounted Medvedev warning Trump about Jeffrey Epstein “archives”.

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BRAZIL. UNITED STATES. All’s Jair in love and war

Tensions deepen as Bolsonaro is arrested.

Jair Bolsonaro was placed under house arrest Monday after the Supreme Court cited the former far-right president's non-compliance with a restraining order pending his trial for an alleged coup plot. Thousands rallied for him Sunday.

INTELLIGENCE. Bolsonaro's trial was given as cause for the US's threat of 50%