Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump fails to secure peace, but he can still screw markets.
YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. Britain joins the defence of the realm.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Brussels looks to trump Washington’s deal.
INDONESIA. As the president strangles the economy, voters revolt.
UNITED STATES. Republicans decide to campaign on fraud.
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IRAN. Coming up short
Trump fails to secure peace, but he can still screw markets.
Brent crashed 5% after regional media reported a “breakthrough” as Pakistani and Qatari delegations arrived in Tehran. Brent bounced back after senior officials refused to meet Pakistan's Asim Munir and the Qataris left after 30 minutes.
INTELLIGENCE. More delegations are allegedly on their way, but after declarations on Truth Social and “leaks” via Axios lost their potency, the use of third-country mediators may now also be failing as a tool of the TACO Tuesday trade. Nonetheless, with large short positions placed minutes before the headlines, someone at least made money. Iran says its stance on Hormuz remains the same. Reuters said officials had no interest in giving Trump a reprieve.
FOR BUSINESS. Donald Trump may never stop crying deal but the returns (assuming they’re intended) will continue to diminish. Escalation remains the likelier path. Keeping oil prices high are ongoing signs of military planning. The USS Theodore Roosevelt is heading to the region with another Marine expeditionary unit as more tankers in Hormuz have allegedly been struck. Trump says he’s “winning” and “can leave right now”, but his actions suggest otherwise.
YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. Mecca for importers
Britain joins the defence of the realm.
Britain said the Royal Air Force would help protect Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks as Ankara moved to ratify its Mecca defence pact with Riyadh and Islamabad. Iran said it had not had a Saudi or Houthi response on its offer to mediate.
INTELLIGENCE. The UK joins France and regional powers in protecting Saudi cities