Crossing the hardliners

Israel, Iran, Qatar, NATO, Thailand, and Costa Rica.

The Pyrrhic Dance, Lawrence Alma-Tadema, 1869, oil on panel, Guildhall Art Gallery, London.

The five things you need to know today:

• ISRAEL. IRAN. Trump will have pulled off a masterstroke, if it can hold.

• QATAR. A near miss is not a great advertisement.

• NATO. Trump heads to the summit convinced of his powers.

• THAILAND. The king and the government are put on course for collision.

• COSTA RICA. An oasis of stability grapples with a difficult region.

Connect with me on LinkedIn and X (Twitter).

Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in 150 countries.

ISRAEL. IRAN. Feint praise

Trump will have pulled off a masterstroke, if it can hold.

Oil fell a further 3% in Asian trade Tuesday after Donald Trump said Iran and Israel had agreed to a 12-hour ceasefire. Tehran made a performative strike Monday at Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base, which hosts several thousand US personnel.

INTELLIGENCE. This is good news for Trump and for Israel, which had begun signalling it was close to its goals and didn’t want a war of attrition. And while Iran is also claiming victory, there will still be hardliners who would like to drag the US into a ground war. With little to show and reduced deterrence, they will still be plotting. Iran's nuclear program is degraded but alive. Around 400kg of uranium is missing. Middle Eastern ceasefires tend to break.

FOR BUSINESS. The ceasefire has reduced oil prices, which are returning to their previous downtrend. It has also reduced divisions within MAGA, which should ease passage of Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill. Still, in a war (like all wars) ruled by deception, Iran’s hardliners may have something up their sleeve. Having been humiliated, with many of their colleagues killed by Israel, and with Washington's neocons emboldened, they have more to fear from peace than war.

Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.

QATAR. Nine lives

A near miss is not a great advertisement.

Qatar reopened its airspace early Tuesday after flights were cancelled ahead of Iranian strikes. British Airways and others had suspended several flights Monday into Dubai. Japanese shippers ordered vessels to minimise Gulf transits.

INTELLIGENCE. Among the Gulf states, Qatar has been particularly blessed by