Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

Crude attempt

India, the US, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Syria, Russia, and the Koreas.

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Michael Feller
Oct 16, 2025
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Where it Rains Petroleum, illustration from James Charles Philip’s The Romance of Modern Chemistry, London, 1909, Science History Institute, Philadelphia.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • INDIA. UNITED STATES. Trump tries to verbal Modi on Russian oil.

  • PAKISTAN. AFGHANISTAN. After sending a message, Islamabad offers a truce.

  • SYRIA. RUSSIA. Damascus and Moscow seek a reset in ties.

  • SOUTH KOREA. Seoul threads the needle on a rushed trade package.

  • NORTH KOREA. Another trial balloon is sent for a Trump-Kim summit.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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INDIA. UNITED STATES. Gusher

Trump tries to verbal Modi on Russian oil.

Donald Trump said Wednesday Narendra Modi had “assured” him Delhi would soon stop buying Russian crude, sending oil prices and the rupee higher. Pete Hegseth said Washington would “impose costs” on Moscow if the war didn’t end.

INTELLIGENCE. Delhi hasn’t commented on Trump’s remarks. And considering it’s weathered his tariffs so far, it’s unlikely the purchases will end soon (Trump also conceded there’d be “a little bit of a process”). If there’s a message in the remarks, it’s threefold: emboldened by Gaza, Trump is trying out more pre-emptive declarations; this is part of a pre-Zelensky meeting pressure campaign (Japan was also told to stop purchases); and Trump really wants a deal.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump wants a deal between Russia and Ukraine, with economic pressure a crucial step (though Moscow denies there’s a crisis and inflation is at a 17-month low). Yet more than that, and having boxed himself in on China, Trump wants a deal with India. An olive branch of sorts may have been offered via this week’s proposal for a $15 billion Google data hub in Andhra Pradesh (an offer unlikely to have been made without White House consent).

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PAKISTAN. AFGHANISTAN. Red line, porous border

After sending a message, Islamabad offers a truce.

Kabul and Islamabad agreed a 48-hour ceasefire Wednesday, with both sides saying the other had requested it. Dozens were killed in air and border strikes the night before, following strikes on 9-12 October that had ended on Gulf pressure.

INTELLIGENCE. After its foreign minister visited Delhi last week, the Taliban will have

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