Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Ships and barrels go underwater.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin phones Trump as Kyiv seeks missiles.
SERBIA. The president puts his survival over Europe.
CANADA. New goods are added amid a trade war impasse.
JAPAN. Bond-trading Bessent meets his matcha.
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IRAN. Empty tankers
Ships and barrels go underwater.
Brent neared $100 overnight as Iran claimed to have struck a US base in Jordan and two US ships after five of its crude carriers were destroyed. The US said it released 1.2 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week.
INTELLIGENCE. The week’s release was less than forecast, suggesting it may be getting harder to extract what remains at the bottom of the SPR’s caverns. Markets are beginning to focus on stocks, not flow, as observed Hormuz traffic remains below US claims and tit-for-tat strikes are escalating in size and target. While Iran is undoubtedly lying about the war’s damage to the US military, the US is potentially lying about the war’s damage to the global economy.
FOR BUSINESS. The other metric to watch is US Patriot interceptor stocks, more of which were observed being used in defending Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base from Iranian missiles. Their availability will determine, as much as fuel prices and poll numbers, Donald Trump’s ability to continue the war at its present pace, both leading into and beyond the midterms. Arms makers have been contracted to produce more, but their timelines will lag those of the conflict.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Patriot games
Putin phones Trump as Kyiv seeks missiles.
Vladimir Putin told Donald Trump he wanted an end to the conflict as soon as possible and had “no aggressive plans whatsoever towards Europe.” Ukraine said it was contracting around 1,000 Patriot interceptors from its Western allies.
INTELLIGENCE. Five were killed after Russia hit Kyiv Tuesday and hybrid threats