
The five things you need to know today:
MEXICO. CANADA. Whether implemented or not, the damage is done.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin will want to seize the day before Trump’s mind changes.
MYANMAR. RUSSIA. The Kremlin spies an opportunity in China's hinterland.
IRAN. Khamenei's strike against reformists may be his final blow.
AFGHANISTAN. PAKISTAN. A border clash shows Kabul ain't listening.
Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.
MEXICO. CANADA. Wolf at the border
Whether implemented or not, the damage is done.
Donald Trump said 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada would take effect at 12:01 am Tuesday, with 20% duties for China to take effect at the same time. US markets fell heavily in afternoon trade. Asian benchmarks declined Tuesday.
INTELLIGENCE. Markets had been pricing a last-minute reprieve, particularly as Trump faces pressure on inflation and confidence. The Atlanta Fed's running GDP estimate has swung from 3% to -1.5%. Even bitcoin is faltering despite pledges on a national reserve. Countermeasures are expected in all cases. China’s could be politically most severe, targeting agriculture. And recent steps to increase food self-sufficiency mean it can strike harder than in 2018.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump likely knew how markets would react but decided to move anyway. "Crying wolf" on tariffs would have hurt his credibility on other threats (including against Europe). But ahead of his joint address to Congress tonight, this is high-stakes poker even by his own standards. Business goodwill for Trump is evaporating. And with an equally exasperated legislature, the path to compensatory rewards on corporate taxes or regulation is narrow.
Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Carpe Donald
Putin will want to seize the day before Trump’s mind changes.
Donald Trump had paused military aid to Ukraine, officials said Monday, despite earlier hope for a minerals deal. Plans were being discussed for Russian sanctions relief, Reuters said. Trump wanted a "filmed apology" from Kyiv, Fox said.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump may be trying to get a deal with Ukraine back on the table without losing face, but his methods