Crying tariffs

Mexico, Canada, Ukraine, Russia, Myanmar, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

The Shepherd Boy and the Wolf, Milo Winter, 1919, illustration in The Aesop for Children, Rand McNally & Co., Chicago.

The five things you need to know today:

• MEXICO. CANADA. Whether implemented or not, the damage is done.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin will want to seize the day before Trump’s mind changes.

• MYANMAR. RUSSIA. The Kremlin spies an opportunity in China's hinterland.

• IRAN. Khamenei's strike against reformists may be his final blow.

• AFGHANISTAN. PAKISTAN. A border clash shows Kabul ain't listening.

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MEXICO. CANADA. Wolf at the border

Whether implemented or not, the damage is done.

Donald Trump said 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada would take effect at 12:01 am Tuesday, with 20% duties for China to take effect at the same time. US markets fell heavily in afternoon trade. Asian benchmarks declined Tuesday.

INTELLIGENCE. Markets had been pricing a last-minute reprieve, particularly as Trump faces pressure on inflation and confidence. The Atlanta Fed's running GDP estimate has swung from 3% to -1.5%. Even bitcoin is faltering despite pledges on a national reserve. Countermeasures are expected in all cases. China’s could be politically most severe, targeting agriculture. And recent steps to increase food self-sufficiency mean it can strike harder than in 2018.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump likely knew how markets would react but decided to move anyway. "Crying wolf" on tariffs would have hurt his credibility on other threats (including against Europe). But ahead of his joint address to Congress tonight, this is high-stakes poker even by his own standards. Business goodwill for Trump is evaporating. And with an equally exasperated legislature, the path to compensatory rewards on corporate taxes or regulation is narrow.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Carpe Donald

Putin will want to seize the day before Trump’s mind changes.

Donald Trump had paused military aid to Ukraine, officials said Monday, despite earlier hope for a minerals deal. Plans were being discussed for Russian sanctions relief, Reuters said. Trump wanted a "filmed apology" from Kyiv, Fox said.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump may be trying to get a deal with Ukraine back on the table without losing face, but his methods