Syria: Road to Damascus.
Also: the Caucasus, Ukraine, China, Afghanistan, the US and India.
SYRIA. Road to Damascus.
A former pariah is courted amid regional rivalries and realignments.
The foreign ministers of Jordan, Syria, Egypt, Iraq and Saudi Arabia met in Amman on Monday for talks aimed at ending Syria’s diplomatic isolation. Iran’s President said he plans to visit Damascus on Wednesday, according to state media.
INTELLIGENCE. In the wake of the invasion of Ukraine and the reshuffling of strategic alliances, Syria has been slowly rebuilding ties. Beyond today’s more prominent reports of an Israeli airstrike, and the assassination of Islamic State’s leader in Syria’s north, the Amman meeting was a breakthrough in Damascus’s hopes to re-join the Arab League, but Iran will be eager to keep Syria in its orbit. Ebrahim Raisi’s planned visit this week – the first by an Iranian president since Syria’s civil war began in 2011 – will show Iran’s continued sway. China and Russia have been active too. Beijing sent special envoy Zhai Jun to meet President Assad on Saturday and Moscow hosted peace talks last month. The moves show that not only is Syria out of the cold, but the UN, the US and Europe are increasingly irrelevant.
FOR BUSINESS. Regional diplomacy is now largely independent of the US, indicating Washington’s declining sway.
ARMENIA. AZERBAIJAN. Complicating the Caucasus.
The US cuts out Russia by hosting talks between two former Soviet republics.
An expected four-day meeting of foreign ministers from Armenia and Azerbaijan, hosted by the US outside Washington, began on Monday. Resolution over the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh has long eluded negotiators.
INTELLIGENCE. It is uncertain a breakthrough will be reached, but the length and seniority of Washington’s meeting will irritate Moscow either way. For years Russia has played off client Armenia against neighbouring Azerbaijan amid wider intrigues in the Caucasus, such as the frozen conflict in Georgia. Any rapprochement between Yerevan and Baku would complicate Russian control of the buffer region, which has been under Moscow’s tutelage since the 1800s. Such an opening would also allow for easier energy access between Turkey, the Caspian Sea and Central Asia, with the potential to cut Russia out. Iran, which borders both countries to the south, will also look on with concern. Tehran is increasingly tied to Moscow and relations with Azerbaijan are deeply strained.
FOR BUSINESS. US attempts to further usurp Russia in its near abroad are risky, irrespective of Washington’s aims.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Dropping a bomb.
Deaths are rising but US attempts to foster Russian acrimony will be rebuffed.
The White House claimed Monday that more than 20,000 Russian troops had died in the battle for Bakhmut since December. A spokesman said half the dead were from the paramilitary Wagner Group and 80,000 had been wounded.
INTELLIGENCE. The numbers paint a woeful picture, but will be rebuffed by the Kremlin, which still enjoys support from most Russians. Designed to sow division between the Russian military and the mercenary outfit Wagner, the US claims will be cast as propaganda, even if true. Russia’s willingness to absorb pain remains high and, unlike the West, its economy is designed to withstand external pressure. Europe, meanwhile, is grappling with the fallout from farmer demands to ban Ukrainian grain. Last week’s deal between the EU and five central European countries may not survive a bearish outlook for wheat futures, which neared two-year lows Monday. Recession fears and concerns over military stockpiles will also limit Western enthusiasm, even as hopes rise for Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive.
FOR BUSINESS. Russia will brush off US attempts to shake it, whether in terms of finance, trade or propaganda.
CHINA. Marching orders.
Changes to conscription laws focus on tech talent amid a demographic crunch.
Beijing approved revisions to China's conscription law on Monday. The changes focus on technological skills and loosen recruitment and term limits. Under the new rules, universities will handle the drafting of students in emergencies.
INTELLIGENCE. As China has embarked on high-tech military acquisitions, enlistment numbers have fallen, particularly in areas where skilled personnel are required. The changes come amid concerns that China’s best and brightest – often the product of one-child families – are avoiding military service. Aligning conscription with the university system, especially in science and engineering, will help President Xi Jinping bolster the ranks, particularly should China ultimately face a better trained and seasoned US military over Taiwan. While Beijing now exceeds the US in naval assets – not to mention traditional strengths in overall troop and artillery numbers – the US is judged to have better manpower and technology-enabled doctrine. Xi’s conscription focus is an attempt to close these gaps.
FOR BUSINESS. Beijing is closing in on Washington for regional predominance, but still lags at the cutting edge.
AFGHANISTAN. Rocks in a hard place.
Chinese mining in Afghanistan comes with risk but potential reward.
Afghan officials said on Monday they would not hurry to award China lucrative lithium mining rights. The Taliban's mining minister met last month with a Chinese resources firm, which purportedly offered $10 billion in investment.
INTELLIGENCE. Although the Taliban is negotiating with a weak hand, Afghanistan’s potential is clear, with an estimated $1 trillion in reserves, including iron, copper, gold, coal, gems and hydrocarbons, in addition to lithium and rare-earths. Afghanistan’s export infrastructure is virtually non-existent, but the country’s mineral-rich Wakhan Corridor is less than 50km from China’s National Highway 314. Despite the Taliban’s dominance in Kabul, security remains the key deterrent. Chinese projects in Pakistan have experienced major terrorist disruptions and Chinese workers in Africa have been seen as kidnapping targets. Still, with China’s appetite unsated and the risk of Western supply chains being redirected, miners will go where they must.
FOR BUSINESS. China’s need for resource security forces it to look at new suppliers and accept higher risks.
INDIA. UNITED STATES. Fair-weather friends.
Human rights concerns are only some of the many contradictions in the relationship.
The independent US Commission on International Religious Freedom recommended for the fourth time on Monday that India be designated a “country of particular concern” on account of the Modi government’s policies.
INTELLIGENCE. Beside finger-pointing in Islamabad and confected outrage in Delhi, the annual report will lead to little, particularly as President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepare to meet this month at the G7 in Japan and the Quad Summit in Australia. With the world’s biggest population and fifth-largest economy, India can afford the hypocrisy of great powers without fear of reprimand. Whether on the treatment of minorities, or ties with Russia, India can do things that would earn others opprobrium, if not sanctions. But as the US and India head to elections next year, the contradictions will grow more uncomfortable. Despite lofty rhetoric, the US and India are not allies. Positions on China overlap for now, but core interests, not to mention values, remain largely antithetical.
FOR BUSINESS. India is an increasingly vital partner for the West, but strategic symbiosis will not necessarily follow.