Deadline on arrival

The US, Thailand, Italy, Ukraine, Russia, and Azerbaijan.

Boar skull, plastic and clock, Hans Neubert, 1959, oil on canvas, private collection.

The five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. Trump vs the world vs the clock.

• THAILAND. The Shinawatras receive a familiar verdict.

• ITALY. Meloni stealth demographic repair hits a hurdle.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin accelerates his invasion while he can.

• AZERBAIJAN. Aliyev turns to the West amid problems with his neighbours.

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UNITED STATES. Time and money

Trump vs the world vs the clock.

Donald Trump suggested he would impose tariffs on Japan by "letter" Monday after talks broke down over rice. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said a series of new trade agreements would be announced after 4 July.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump has set two clocks: 4 July for Congress to agree the Big Beautiful Bill, and 9 July for countries to avoid unilateral tariffs. There are signs both will be missed, but, in an environment where not "chickening out" has taken a totemic quality, the president will need to show symbolic progress, or someone to blame. For trade, that means a series of framework agreements. For the budget, it could mean a new showdown with much of the GOP.

FOR BUSINESS. The showdown may once again involve Elon Musk, who has resumed his social media attacks on the White House, even suggesting "a new political party that actually cares about the people." It’s unrealistic he will find many acolytes in the Republican Party’s libertarian and moderate wings, but it could encourage them to face down threats of a MAGA-backed preselection battle. A split that was closed after Iran may reopen over spending.

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THAILAND. The road lèse travelled

The Shinawatras receive a familiar verdict.

Opposition parties called on Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to resign Tuesday as the Constitutional Court suspended her pending an ethics trial. Her father attended a separate lèse-majesté hearing at Bangkok’s criminal court.

INTELLIGENCE. Deputy PM Suriya Juangroongruangkit has taken over as caretaker