Deadlocked and unloaded
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, Romania, China, and Taiwan.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump extends a ceasefire to continue a porous blockade.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. The truce frays before the next round of talks.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Druzhba is repaired but supplies are uncertain.
MOLDOVA. ROMANIA. New tests come for NATO’s eastern flank.
CHINA. TAIWAN. Beijing scores a tactical win in southern Africa.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm helping businesses and investors to get ahead of the world. Connect with me on LinkedIn to learn more. And if you’re not receiving the full edition, upgrade below.
IRAN. Ceaseless
Trump extends a ceasefire to continue a porous blockade.
Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran “until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal” after talks were cancelled. Iran said Trump’s ongoing blockade was “no different from bombardment”.
INTELLIGENCE. Iran added that the extension “means nothing” and “the losing side cannot dictate terms.” Trump is at pains to show he’s winning, ranting at the Wall Street Journal and others for saying the opposite. But it’s hard to think this is anything other than a climbdown, noting earlier streams of escalatory threats. And while the US blockade isn’t trivial, the Financial Times reports at least 34 tankers have gotten through. It may simply drag the conflict out.
FOR BUSINESS. Iran wants Trump to drop the blockade in exchange for talks. And on his record thus far, it has good reasons to think he will. While Trump claims Iran is losing $500 million per day, he is spending an estimated $2 billion. Further, CNN estimates he’s expended 50% of US THAAD and Patriot interceptors. And while escalation is possible, the US would need a much larger force than currently assembled to force Iran back to the table without concessions.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Back to confront
The truce frays before the next round of talks.
The IDF and Hezbollah blamed each other for ceasefire violations as a Lebanese village was demolished and Israeli towns activated warning sirens. US Ambassador Mike Huckabee was recalled to Washington ahead of bilateral talks.
INTELLIGENCE. Huckabee will join Marco Rubio and other officials to host a second