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Deal with it

Ukraine, Russia, Austria, the US, Israel, Palestine, and Libya.

Michael Feller's avatar
Michael Feller
Feb 13, 2025
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Still Hope, Leslie Gilbert Illingworth, cartoon in Punch, 9 March 1938, publisher's collection, London.

The five things you need to know today:

  • UKRAINE. RUSSIA. The White House rushes into a risky deal.

  • AUSTRIA. The hard-right Freedom Party fails to form a government.

  • UNITED STATES. Trump prepares for a universal trade war.

  • ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu appears to blink on the ceasefire.

  • LIBYA. An attempted assassination amid strategic competition.

Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for the only daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.

UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Where angels fear to tread

The White House rushes into a risky deal.

Donald Trump said he would soon meet Vladimir Putin, likely in Saudi Arabia, after a "lengthy and highly productive" call. Tulsi Gabbard was sworn-in as Director of National Intelligence. Several officials were named to lead negotiations.

INTELLIGENCE. One name not on Trump’s list of negotiators was special envoy Keith Kellogg, suggesting the Kremlin is already imposing terms. And having already announced concessions in advance – such as Ukraine not becoming a NATO member – the White House is signalling it wants a quick deal more than a good deal. That may be logical if the aim is to get troops out of Europe, and Russia out of China’s orbit, but Kyiv, among many others, won’t be happy.

FOR BUSINESS. The risks of a dud deal aren't just to US prestige but, ultimately, to stability. Giving Ukraine a "stab-in-the-back" narrative, or placing European allies in jeopardy, will only continue the security dilemma. There are signs of efforts to sabotage the talks. A Russian cable to Kaliningrad was cut on Saturday and an oil tanker exploded in the port of Ust-Luga. Politico has said EU officials are discussing the large-scale seizure of Russian commercial ships.

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AUSTRIA. Wieners and losers

The hard-right Freedom Party fails to form a government.

Coalition talks led by the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) collapsed Wednesday after differences with the centre-right People's Party (OVP) over policy and ministerial allocations were unable to be bridged. The FPO called for a snap vote.

INTELLIGENCE. The OVP has blamed the FPO for the failure of the talks, with a leaked list of demands including

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