Debt and taxes

The US, Israel, Iran, India, Pakistan, Kenya, and Togo.

Five Dollar Bill, Victor Dubreuil, c. 1885, oil on canvas, Phillips Collection, Washington DC.

The five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. Bessent nixes s.899, but his next task may be harder.

• ISRAEL. IRAN. Khamenei resurfaces with a warning.

• INDIA. PAKISTAN. Bilateral tensions play out on the world stage.

• KENYA. Anti-Ruto protests worry the region.

• TOGO. A West African transit hub faces the music.

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UNITED STATES. Credit where it’s due

Bessent nixes s.899, but his next task may be harder.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asked Congress to remove its 'Section 899' retaliatory tax proposal from the budget bill. The dollar hit a three-year low Thursday on reports Donald Trump would soon announce a successor to Jay Powell.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump has frequently attacked the Fed chair over his reluctance to cut rates. By announcing a replacement soon, despite Powell’s term not ending until next May, Trump could essentially force him to quit. No official likes to be a lame duck, especially if the replacement is quacking an alternative forward guidance. Trump says he has several nominees in mind. Bessent is said to be in the lead. The main criteria are to be dovish, and loyal.

FOR BUSINESS. The dollar is falling not just on expectations of a dovish Fed but fears of political interference and fiscal dominance. Technical analysis suggests falls could be steeper ahead. Foreign direct investment into the US is down 21%. Bessent's attempt to remove s.899 could stem the tide – foreign capital hates being taxed – but as a member of team Trump, the ex-hedge fund manager, famous for breaking the Bank of England, is part of the problem.

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ISRAEL. IRAN. Ghost busters

Khamenei resurfaces with a warning.

Ali Khamenei said the US "gained no achievement" excepting "saving" Israel. The Guardian Council ratified a bill to suspend IAEA cooperation. The White House said no enriched uranium was removed from Fordow prior to its bombing.

INTELLIGENCE. Khamenei, despite the rumours, is alive. And so too most likely is