Denmark, China: Something rotten
Also: Ukraine, Russia, India, the US, Mali, and the DRC.
In today’s dispatch:
DENMARK. CHINA. A Chinese ship is intercepted amid a cable sabotage probe.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv braces for winter, and further escalation.
INDIA. UNITED STATES. Washington indicts Modi's favourite oligarch.
MALI. Western firms are shaken down as the regime struggles in the north.
D.R. CONGO. Kinshasa faces protest as a ceasefire collapses in the east.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping companies map, monitor and manage geopolitical risk. Based on the US Presidential Daily Brief, it’s not news, it’s intelligence.
DENMARK. CHINA. Something rotten
A Chinese ship is intercepted amid a cable sabotage probe.
Danish authorities confirmed an interception of the Chinese-flagged Yi Peng 3 Wednesday, but did not confirm industry rumours it had been boarded. Sweden said the vessel was under investigation over damage to two fibre optic cables.
INTELLIGENCE. The ship last docked near St Petersburg and was allegedly piloted by a Russian national. Several EU politicians have blamed Moscow, and the vessel, for sabotaging the cables, possibly in retaliation for recent moves to hit Russia with Western missiles. Yet it’s Beijing whose response should be watched, particularly in Copenhagen, which has taken the hot potato of maritime interception despite it not being directly connected to either of the cables.
FOR BUSINESS. The interception was taken under the little-known 1884 Convention for the Protection of Submarine Telegraph Cables. And it's the convention’s first confirmed enforcement action since 1959, when the US Navy boarded a Soviet trawler in response to an accident off Newfoundland. It marks a change since the Chinese-flagged NewNew Polar Bear was allowed to continue sailing after damaging the Balticconnector gas pipeline in October 2023.
Stay ahead with Geopolitical Dispatch — 5 essential stories, 5 days a week, delivered at 5am ET — produced exclusively by former diplomats and government officials. We speak to insiders around the world to help insiders around the world.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Waiting for impact
Kyiv braces for winter, and further escalation.
The US embassy in Kyiv reopened Thursday after closing a day earlier on fears of a major Russian air raid. Ukrainian intelligence accused Moscow of "psychological warfare" after warnings of a thermobaric attack were spread online.
INTELLIGENCE. Russia has used thermobaric (vacuum) weapons throughout the war, particularly in recent weeks. Such munitions