Détente in the desert

Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Morocco, Western Sahara, China, Taiwan, and the US.

Graveyard in the desert, Jan Ciągliński, 1903, oil on canvas, National Museum, Warsaw.

The five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A US-brokered deal won't last without a shift in global order.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Pressure builds on Arab states to solve Gaza.

• MOROCCO. WESTERN SAHARA. France rebuilds its influence in West Africa.

• CHINA. TAIWAN. Washington’s mixed messages speak of policy incoherence.

• UNITED STATES. Efficiency cuts drive into the heart of MAGA.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Building on sand

A US-brokered deal won't last without a shift in global order.

Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov met in Riyadh for their first talks Tuesday. Lavrov ruled out territorial concessions. His staff said their focus would be the restoration of friendly relations with the US. Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Abu Dhabi.

INTELLIGENCE. Zelensky won’t have much to fear until Russia’s first agenda item – broader détente with the US –is hashed out. This could take time, particularly as it would be predicated on the US leaning on its erstwhile European allies to ease sanctions and embargoes. Still, any resultant ceasefire is unlikely to stick unless Russia feels it has “won” and the US can say the same. And to force Ukraine and Europe to accept, Trump may need to play bad cop.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s recent demand for Kyiv to pay mineral reparations was so outrageous it’s possibly a ploy to make Putin’s demands seem reasonable. By agreeing to the latter, Ukraine can thus avoid the US’s threats. Having already been poked at Munich, the EU may expect a similar stick (against the “carrot” of stability along their eastern front). As distasteful as it sounds, this may be the only way Trump gets peace in Ukraine without committing troops.

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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. There is no alternative (yet)

Pressure builds on Arab states to solve Gaza.

Hamas was willing to hand control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority, Arab media said Monday. Israel said this was "not going to happen". Egyptian state media reported a proposal for Cairo to take the Strip while keeping Gazans inside.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump’s gambit to “take over” Gaza seems to be working, if its objective was to encourage Arab