Dial T for TACO
Iran, Israel, Palestine, Overseas Europe, Japan, and South Korea.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Gulf allies phone a friend in the White House.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu raises the stakes for Gaza.
EUROPEAN EXTERNAL TERRITORIES. Patterns form beyond Ceuta.
JAPAN. Bessent opens a carry trade of worms.
SOUTH KOREA. The share market gets out of control.
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IRAN. Calls to disarm
Gulf allies phone a friend in the White House.
Donald Trump cancelled plans for "military terror" after requests from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. His later claim of a "deal on Hormuz" was rejected by Iran, which hit a tanker, but officials said an agreement with Oman was in the "final stages."
INTELLIGENCE. Trump’s TACO was at the behest of allies, but every climbdown gives leverage to Iran, which is counting down to the midterms and Strategic Petroleum Reserve bottoms. Yet if Tehran gets Washington to acknowledge its control of the Strait – matching its understanding of Article 5 of the 17 June memorandum, which Masoud Pezeshkian said Sunday “will be the centre of gravity” of “foreign relations in the future” – it may reopen it.
FOR BUSINESS. Iran would like to toll Hormuz, but control is more important, hence its strikes at ships that use the southern corridor in Omani waters. Should the US and allies find ways to compensate via other means, such as expediting the MoU’s $300 billion investment fund, the fiction of free passage can resume. This is what markets now expect, but Israel can still kybosh any deal, and its reasons for doing so will only grow as talks turn to nuclear matters.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Strip poker
Netanyahu raises the stakes for Gaza.
Israeli strikes killed at least 18 in Gaza Sunday despite Trump announcing a deal on Hamas disarmament he said Israel was “very happy” with. Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokesman told Associated Press Israel had raised “serious concerns”.
INTELLIGENCE. The deal, which gives Hamas a long timeline to disarm, and can be