Dim and distant
Israel, Yemen, Iran, trade, the US, Laos, and Russia.
The five things you need to know today:
ISRAEL. YEMEN. A Houthi attack keeps peace efforts elusive.
ISRAEL. IRAN. Khamenei appears as his officials sidestep talks.
TRADE. Negotiators contend with multiplying timeframes.
UNITED STATES. Trump and Musk split up again.
LAOS. RUSSIA. Putin leans on another friend in Asia.
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ISRAEL. YEMEN. Far, far away
A Houthi attack keeps peace efforts elusive.
Israel attacked targets in Yemen Monday, including the commandeered ship Galaxy Leader, following a hijacking blamed on the Houthis. Donald Trump said there was a "good chance" of a Gaza ceasefire ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit.
INTELLIGENCE. A truce with Hamas looks unlikely, with Israel saying its current terms are unacceptable. The latest events make it unlikelier still. While it's unclear how the hijacking of a Greek-owned ship heading to Turkey demanded the latest reprisals, the Houthis may have helped Netanyahu avert a dilemma. Facing opposition from his coalition, he can’t agree to a ceasefire. Facing Trump, he can’t appear needlessly obstinate. Now he has others to blame.
FOR BUSINESS. Netanyahu can't exactly thank the Houthis, and Israel does have interests in keeping the Red Sea navigable, but Netanyahu has a greater personal interest in political survival, which an end to the Gaza war would make less tenable. At the very least, a Houthi flareup is unlikely to affect oil markets. Tehran is deterred from involvement. Hezbollah is considering demilitarisation. A larger than expected OPEC output hike has checked prices.
Ahead of President Trump’s 9 July trade deal deadline, we have outlined four scenarios for what could come next. We would love to hear your views.
ISRAEL. IRAN. Grouchy public, unhidden imam
Khamenei appears as his officials sidestep talks.
Ali Khamenei attended a religious ceremony Saturday, in his first public outing since the war with Israel. Iran dismissed reported talks with the US as "incorrect speculation” as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met his Russian counterpart.
INTELLIGENCE. Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff was reportedly due to
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