Diminishing returns
Iran, the UAE, Israel, Lebanon, Spain, and Bulgaria.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump’s options for escalation, and de-escalation, narrow.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. Abu Dhabi locks Washington in a squirrel grip.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. The IDF forecloses any potential for rapprochement.
SPAIN. Sanchez puts himself at the centre of the pushback.
BULGARIA. The prime minister-elect is not as Putinist as he seems.
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IRAN. Strait back atcha
Trump's options for escalation, and de-escalation, narrow.
Iran declared Hormuz closed after briefly declaring it open. The IRGC struck two ships attempting to cross while the US seized an Iranian tanker. Yemen’s Houthis threatened to close the Red Sea. JD Vance was sent to Islamabad for talks.
INTELLIGENCE. Oil spiked and futures fell Monday. Trump has tried to calm markets, calling Tehran’s moves “a little cute” and insisting talks were going “really well”, but unless its negotiators turn up tomorrow, he’ll have further ceded escalation dominance to Iran. Amid reports the IRGC has sent drones against US ships, further endangering the truce, Trump’s reiterated threat to “knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge” looks reactive, and coerced.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump wants to end a war he stumbled into, expecting a Venezuela. Before it lets him, Iran will want to extract every concession it can. Its brief opening of Hormuz was less a decision proposed by the foreign minister but opposed by the hardliners, than an invitation to treat, which Trump didn’t take. Iran will want the next offramp it takes to be greeted with compromise. Just because its diplomats aren’t talking doesn’t mean they’re not negotiating.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. All your base are belong to US
Abu Dhabi locks Washington in a squirrel grip.
Abu Dhabi had sought a currency swap from Washington, the Wall Street Journal said Sunday. A prominent Dubai-based commentator said US bases had become a “burden” for the Emirates, which should instead only acquire US weapons.
INTELLIGENCE. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a retired professor and unofficial spokesman