**Yesterday’s email put the G20 finance ministers’ meeting in South Carolina, not North Carolina - apologies.**
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. As the hits get harder, so do the offramps.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Hybrid war moves from sea to air.
CHINA. Arguments over imbalance won’t deter Beijing.
CANADA. Ottawa lays the ground for new negotiations.
MARKETS. Yields and panic are beginning to spread.
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IRAN. Tough acts to follow
As the hits get harder, so do the offramps.
Jordan said it had intercepted 10 missiles after Iran said it had destroyed several US drone stores in retaliation for strikes along Iran’s coast, with several civilian casualties. Donald Trump said he “couldn’t care less” about a deal. Oil prices rose.
INTELLIGENCE. Another hot phase of the war looks likely as the US re-enters an escalation cycle that risks further degrading its limited interceptor stocks. And while Trump could always chicken out, any American casualties, if confirmed, would make this politically difficult. Claiming six deaths at a wedding in Kuhestak, Iran, for its part, looks unlikely to blink first. A new US “tanker-for-tanker” policy will also reduce the chances of any short-term off-ramp.
FOR BUSINESS. Markets will want to see mediation efforts resume (even if performative) before letting oil prices fall. They’ve otherwise ignored Trump’s declaration of “almost total control” of Hormuz, alongside his energy secretary’s claims that 17 million barrels left the strait Monday. Even Axios, a source of prior market-calming “scoops”, isn’t getting traction with reports of 40 ship transits on Tuesday, or “at least a month” of lower threat levels.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Unfriendly skies
Hybrid war moves from sea to air.
Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia’s airspace will “effectively be closing” as Russian jet-powered drones continued to pound Kyiv. Vladimir Putin said he wouldn’t negotiate with “terrorists”. Germany accused Russia of a Leipzig drone scare.
INTELLIGENCE. Western airlines already avoid Russia, and there have been no