Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Modern Croesus declares his economic D-Day.
BRICS. Emerging markets accelerate a parallel architecture.
USMCA. Washington divides and rules in trade negotiations.
KOREAN PENINSULA. The Kims push Trump on nuclear recognition.
INTERNATIONAL LAW. Washington sanctions the ICC’s president.
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IRAN. Crushing it
Modern Croesus declares his economic D-Day.
Donald Trump said there were no talks with Iran, contradicting earlier claims there were. The UAE accused Iran of trying to hit Dubai and closed off all trade. Iran said the UAE was “carrying out Scott Bessent’s orders for economic warfare”.
INTELLIGENCE. Whether Iran sought to attack the Emirates, after weeks of hitting ADNOC ships trying to exit Hormuz, there was always the chance the UAE would be forced to respond. Yet as Saudi Arabia tightens its own restrictions on Emirati finance, and Trump threatens Oman, the UAE’s decision to block off Iran (despite a reported gold transfer last week) would not have been straightforward. Either it’s doing so under duress, or it sees the freeze as temporary.
FOR BUSINESS. After 24 weeks of war, the UAE isn’t the only one to want a resolution. Even China, which has now halted oil shipments for COSCO and CMES through Hormuz, will be getting tired of Trump’s self-sabotage. Yet Trump still shows no sign of taking the loss. Declaring on Truth Social that the Strait was “new US territory”, and amid reports that Pete Hegseth is about to get sacked, it’s even less clear what the strategy – which CNN says is “changing” – is.
BRICS. Behind the wall
Emerging markets accelerate a parallel architecture.
The IDF confirmed it had bombed Syria’s Abu al-Duhur air base, 70 kilometres from the Turkish border, ahead of reports it would soon be used by Turkey. Ankara slammed the move. US envoy Tom Barrack called it “unnecessary escalation”.
INTELLIGENCE. Barrack, who is Trump’s ambassador to Turkey and has longstanding