Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
ARGENTINA. A shock win for Milei could be pyrrhic for Trump.
CHINA. UNITED STATES. US unpredictability casts doubt on a lasting deal.
SOUTHEAST ASIA. Beneath the congeniality lies a divided region.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin responds to threats with more threats.
KOSOVO. Pristina faces snap elections, Belgrade eyes an offramp.
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ARGENTINA. Javier got news for you
A shock win for Milei could be pyrrhic for Trump.
Local markets were poised to soar after La Libertad Avanza almost doubled its lower house seats in Sunday’s midterms, giving Javier Milei more than enough votes to protect his veto. Donald Trump said his confidence in Milei was “justified”.
INTELLIGENCE. Milei has defied polls, pundits and the recent provincial elections in Buenos Aires, where his party was thrashed. Scott Bessent’s rescue of the peso appears to have encouraged more people to vote for Milei than fear another era of Yanqui servitude, as the Peronist opposition campaigned on. Yet with a historically low turnout, Milei’s endorsement was tepid. The question now is whether the US will continue to support a soybean export rival.
FOR BUSINESS. Even Trump appeared to doubt Milei, qualifying Bessent’s package and meeting Lula da Silva, who claimed a “guaranteed” trade deal Monday. But now Milei has won, US credibility will be staked again on a rescue to a country many in the GOP heartland see as an unfair competitor. And just as Argentine farmers stand to be bailed out by a shutdown Washington, the US Department of Agriculture has said food stamps won’t be issued next month.
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CHINA. UNITED STATES. Spanner in the framework
US unpredictability casts doubt on a lasting deal.
Asian markets rose Monday after Scott Bessent said a “positive framework” had been reached for talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, where he expected China to delay its rare earth controls and buy US soya. Beijing gave no details.
INTELLIGENCE. It is not in Beijing's or Washington’s interests to have a trade war.