Don't know what they're doing
Israel, Iran, NATO, India, China, Singapore, and Indonesia.
The five things you need to know today:
ISRAEL. IRAN. Washington and Tel Aviv go back to square one on Tehran.
NATO. Europe surrenders on military spending.
INDIA. CHINA. Longstanding rivals unhedge their bets.
SINGAPORE. CHINA. Trump's erraticism drives a partner toward Beijing.
INDONESIA. Prabowo is forced to cut his lunch money.
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ISRAEL. IRAN. Intelligence test
Washington and Tel Aviv go back to square one on Tehran.
An Israel-Iran ceasefire largely held after an early breach led Donald Trump to yell "they don't know what the f..k they're doing." The White House refuted an intelligence report that Iran's nuclear program had only been set back by months.
INTELLIGENCE. The leaked Pentagon assessment, reported widely in the media, appears more credible than separate claims, posted on the White House website, that agencies were wrong about Iran not pursuing a nuclear weapon. In either event, it doesn’t matter. No matter how far back Iran has been set, the mullahs are more likely than ever to want a bomb, even if you believe Steve Witkoff’s assertion that they also want to resume peace talks.
FOR BUSINESS. If there's any lesson from the past fortnight, it's that Trump can't be trusted to negotiate in good faith. Additional lessons – that Iran's bark is worse than its bite, Israel will play Trump for a fool, and the US is trigger-happy – have always been obvious. While claiming victory, each side looks worse for wear. The nuclear question remains live, as does the risk of future conflict. Energy markets aren't pricing this in for now, but they seldom do.
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NATO. Defence is the best offence
Europe surrenders on military spending.
NATO was expected to agree to a 5% spending goal Wednesday, despite grumbles from members like Spain. Mark Rutte said he had no doubt about US commitments after Donald Trump said there were "numerous" definitions of Article 5.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump is likely to be just softening up NATO members for a
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