Double shot
The US, markets, Iran, Indonesia, and Bolivia.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. Trump purifies the GOP and writes its obituary.
MARKETS. Bond traders attempt vigilante justice.
IRAN. As the US prevaricates, Israel prepares for round two.
INDONESIA. Prabowo’s new export agency deepens graft concerns.
BOLIVIA. Protests in La Paz are less putsch than peasants’ revolt.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm helping businesses and investors to get ahead of the world. Connect with me on LinkedIn to learn more. And if you’re not receiving the full edition, upgrade below.
UNITED STATES. Distilled Kentucky straight
Trump purifies the GOP and writes its obituary.
A string of Trump-backed candidates won their Republican primaries Tuesday, including Ed Gallrein against Kentucky congressman Thomas Massie. Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s run against Senator John Cornyn.
INTELLIGENCE. Massie and Cornyn have been popular and reliably conservative fixtures in the House and Senate, but they didn’t pass Trump’s loyalty test, which is increasingly all that matters in the Republican Party. Compounding a nationwide swing against the GOP by independents and non-MAGA conservatives, this will improve the Democrats’ chance of winning both chambers at the midterms, irrespective of ongoing gerrymander efforts across several states.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump is losing in the polls but is winning against the GOP establishment. And while this may be pyrrhic in November, it gives him a greater chance at bolstering executive authority while he can. Between an IRS settlement allowing a $1.8 billion defence fund for his cronies (and a lifelong audit exemption for his children), and a promised revenge attack against senators who advanced a war powers measure, he is pulling few if any punches.
MARKETS. Yield what you sow
Bond traders attempt vigilante justice.
US and Japanese 30-year bond yields soared to post-2007 highs amid a global sovereign sell-off exacerbated by a large block of 5 and 10-year auctions by the US Treasury. The odds of a Fed rate rise by the end of the year jumped to 58%.
INTELLIGENCE. The bond market is seen as Trump’s one remaining constraint,