Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

Down to rare earths

China, the US, Canada, Brazil, Israel, Palestine, Ukraine, and Russia.

Michael Feller's avatar
Michael Feller
Oct 24, 2025
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And I saw a star fall from heaven unto the earth, Henry John Stock, 1902, pencil and watercolour heightened with bodycolour on paper, private collection.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • CHINA. UNITED STATES. Envoys dig deep to preserve a meeting.

  • CANADA. Trump slaps Carney with faux outrage.

  • BRAZIL. Lula hopes to wrangle a breakthrough at ASEAN.

  • ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Pressure builds on Washington to lay down the law.

  • UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Europe punts a decision on sovereign assets.

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CHINA. UNITED STATES. Uncommon ground

Envoys dig deep to preserve a meeting.

Vice Premier He Lifeng met Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer in Malaysia Friday as the White House said Xi Jinping and Donald Trump would meet next Thursday in South Korea. Asian shares hit record highs on hopes of a trade truce.

INTELLIGENCE. Markets are largely buoyed by technology optimism, but could be whipsawed this week by inevitable speculation of whether a Trump-Xi summit will happen. The odds are it will, as it’s in both sides’ interests, but disagreements remain, particularly on what Greer calls China’s “incredibly aggressive” rare earths controls. Xi could be angling for bigger US concessions, not so much on tariffs, which are rerouting, not risking exports, but Taiwan.

FOR BUSINESS. Both sides will stack the deck ahead of Thursday’s talks, but without careful communication, this could spill into misunderstanding or worse. With Trump’s unpredictability and Xi’s inscrutability, this remains possible, but Bessent and He will try to ensure it doesn’t happen. Magnet supply chain fears, Chinese battery maker Gotion’s decision to scrap a Michigan EV plant, and mixed messages out of Beijing’s party plenum may also deal wild cards.

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CANADA. Dead as a Gipper

Trump slaps Carney with faux outrage.

Donald Trump late Thursday announced “all trade negotiations with Canada are hereby terminated” based on a complaint by the Ronald Reagan Foundation that the former president’s voice was incorrectly spliced in an Ontario advertisement.

INTELLIGENCE. Canada’s “egregious” act was to show Reagan criticising tariffs and

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