Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

Early warning

Ukraine, Russia, the Netherlands, Israel, Palestine, Argentina, and Peru.

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Michael Feller
Oct 23, 2025
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Time to Bridge That Gulch, Bruce Russell, Los Angeles Times, 30 November 1945, Library of Congress, Washington DC.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump sends Putin a message, not a missile.

  • THE NETHERLANDS. Between China, the US and Europe, a shift to the centre.

  • ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Moves toward West Bank annexation will set back Gaza.

  • ARGENTINA. A bailout proves red meat to Trump and Milei’s opponents.

  • PERU. The president imposes a state of emergency.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Non-nuclear option

Trump sends Putin a message, not a missile.

Crude spiked 3% late Wednesday after the US sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, the first new sanctions on Russia of 2025. Donald Trump denied he planned to send long-range missiles to Ukraine but cancelled a summit with Vladimir Putin.

INTELLIGENCE. The measures are Washington’s strongest yet, and, coming alongside the EU’s 19th sanctions package, took markets by surprise. Yet without explicitly naming banks or Asian buyers, the package may mean little. The summit, which was Trump’s idea, was simply postponed. Kyiv has claimed a victory, which the EU will join in heralding at today’s meetings in Brussels, but it may not last. Ukrainian troops are reportedly evacuating Pokrovsk.

FOR BUSINESS. The Kremlin met the news with nuclear drills and a statement that talks were ongoing. Getting India and China to agree to end purchases may be the only way to pressure Putin. Indian media Wednesday reported a US deal was close at hand, but Narendra Modi’s decision not to attend the East Asia Summit in Malaysia, ostensibly due to Diwali, suggests he’s not ready to meet with Trump. India is also reportedly in talks to buy more Russian missiles.

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THE NETHERLANDS. Dutch unease

Between China, the US and Europe, a shift to the centre.

Police detained a man for questioning Wednesday after he issued death threats to hard-right politician Geert Wilders. Wilders’ Freedom Party led in polls ahead of elections next Wednesday. A deportation deal with Uganda was announced.

INTELLIGENCE. Wilders’ opponents are seeking to limit his appeal by neutralising his

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