Emirates leaving the ship
OPEC, Iran, Iraq, India, China, the UK, and the US.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
OPEC. The UAE revives a fight with Saudi Arabia.
IRAN. Faced with no good options, Trump looks to invent one.
IRAQ. The prime minister-designate will still be beholden to the militias.
INDIA. CHINA. A gathering of enemies looks strangely harmonic.
BRITAIN. UNITED STATES. Warm speeches cannot stop a cold tide.
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OPEC. Cartel blanche
The UAE revives a fight with Saudi Arabia.
Abu Dhabi said it was quitting OPEC after almost 60 years. Brent crude dipped slightly as traders priced in greater Emirati leeway to increase oil output. The UAE earlier said the Gulf Cooperation Council was at its “weakest” position “in history”.
INTELLIGENCE. The UAE said the move was increasing production capacity. But with capacity moot amid the Iran war, the move is more about a strategic rift with Saudi Arabia. Riyadh dominates OPEC and the GCC, which held a reportedly testy leaders’ meeting in Jeddah Tuesday. Its clashes with Abu Dhabi had been muted since the start of the conflict, but they’re now back in the open, with the UAE seeking a harder line on Iran and a softer one on Israel.
FOR BUSINESS. It’s too early to say if this will end OPEC. Doha left in 2019, during its own rift with Riyadh. OPEC+, involving Russia, has grown more important. Iran and Israel are not the only issues splitting the UAE and Saudi Arabia. They back opposing forces in Sudan and Yemen, and Emirati ties with Ethiopia and Somaliland could clash with those Saudi Arabia has built with Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey. China, Russia and the US will try to avoid choosing sides.
IRAN. Unilateral thinking
Faced with no good options, Trump looks to invent one.
Donald Trump claimed Iran said it was in “a state of collapse” and wanted the US to open Hormuz “as they try to figure out their leadership”. Agencies were evaluating how Iran may respond to a unilateral declaration of victory, Reuters said.
INTELLIGENCE. One doesn’t need the US intelligence community to know how Iran