Engine in the ceasefire place
Iran, Israel, Palestine, Ukraine, Russia, Iceland, and the US.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The war is fixed in a zone of market manipulation.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu pushes the boundaries while he can.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. More NATO members are caught in the conflict.
ICELAND. Reykjavik reevaluates its splendid isolation.
UNITED STATES. Trump deepens the loyalty tests.
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IRAN. The truce hurts
The war is fixed in a zone of market manipulation.
JD Vance said “we’re very close” amid reports another 60-day truce had been agreed. Tehran said “Axios is fake news” and it would “not sign any agreement that does not align with our interests.” The Pentagon denied a jet had been downed.
INTELLIGENCE. The current truce barely holds, and the next one, even if agreed, won’t necessarily open Hormuz, but markets continue to price the war as over. Trump’s indecision may be intentional. Beyond delaying his narrow options – allowing China to mediate, escalating to a ground war, or surrendering on current terms – his equivocations, leaks, and endless threat-to-TACO cycle are the best way to keep oil prices range-bound while monetising the uncertainty.
FOR BUSINESS. Seen cynically, Trump’s approach is just art of the deal, but his problem is that at some point, possibly within the next month, oil’s physical shortages will overtake the futures market’s malleability. Trump will hope Tehran will buckle by then – it would also prefer Hormuz to be open – but his political and economic timeframes were always going to be tighter than theirs, even if, as he says, “We don’t need oil. We don’t need the strait. We don’t need anything.”
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Nasty peace
Netanyahu pushes the boundaries while he can.
Benjamin Netanyahu directed the IDF to seize 70% of Gaza, in violation of the “yellow line” agreement from October. Israel said it had cut ties with the UN Secretary General after being placed on a conflict-related sexual violence list.
INTELLIGENCE. Antonio Guterres leaves Turtle Bay in December, so the cut-off will