Everyone's business
India, Pakistan, the UK, the US, the EU, Poland, and the Vatican.
The five things you need to know today:
INDIA. PAKISTAN. The Kashmir conflict nears an inflection point.
BRITAIN. UNITED STATES. An uncooked agreement enthuses but doesn’t clarify.
EUROPE. UNITED STATES. The EU outlines a €95 billion plan B.
POLAND. Another centre of European security takes form.
THE VATICAN. Pope Leo could grate on MAGA and Beijing.
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INDIA. PAKISTAN. Borderline
The Kashmir conflict nears an inflection point.
Pakistan had launched strikes on army installations near Jammu and "multiple attacks" along the length of the border, India said Friday. Amritsar residents were told to stay inside. JD Vance said the conflict was "none of our business".
INTELLIGENCE. The State Department has issued statements, and some US mediation can be expected behind the scenes, but the nonchalance at the top is troubling (Donald Trump expressed disappointment but said the conflict “had been going on for 1,500 years"). A lack of a US handbrake is risky in an escalating crisis, and neither Delhi nor Islamabad seems minded to back off. The conflict risks quickly shifting from anti-terrorist operation to all-out war.
FOR BUSINESS. Talks between national security advisers reportedly continue, but as each new death is recorded, the decision to escalate or stop will increasingly be political. India's military has established protocols and is seen as risk-averse, but its civilian government has adopted a great power's hubris of credibility. After Pakistan allegedly shot down five of its jets, it won't want to look like a pushover, particularly as this was due to advanced Chinese weaponry.
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BRITAIN. UNITED STATES. All framework, no play
An uncooked agreement enthuses but doesn’t clarify.
Donald Trump and Keir Starmer announced a framework "general terms" deal to lower tariffs, and drop them completely for certain goods, subject to negotiations in the coming weeks. Airline shares surged on a carve-out for jet engines.
INTELLIGENCE. The announcement was described as a "breakthrough", but it's little more than a statement of intent.