Face value

China, the US, Russia, India, the former USSR, Israel, and Palestine.

Looking into a Mirror, Qing dynasty hanging scroll from the series "Yinzhen’s Consorts Partaking in Pleasurable Activities", c. 1709-23, ink and colour on silk, Palace Museum, Beijing.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. Conditions emerge for mutual face-saving.

• RUSSIA. UNITED STATES. Potential deals, and backchannels, come into view.

• RUSSIA. INDIA. Washington misreads a longstanding partnership.

• RUSSIA. FORMER SOVIET UNION. Moscow struggles to direct its near abroad.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu mulls total occupation.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

Upgrade today for access to all five daily briefings, five days a week, as relied on by leaders and investors across 150 countries. Upgrade to GD Pro for even more.

CHINA. UNITED STATES. Room for manoeuvre

Conditions emerge for mutual face-saving.

Donald Trump said he was "very close to a deal" with China, with whom the US was “getting along very well”. If so, he would meet with Xi Jinping this year. Chinese listings on the US share market were on track for a record, K&L Gates said.

INTELLIGENCE. Despite ongoing tensions on chips (Nvidia has been under a probe on alleged US kill-switches) and Russian oil purchases (Beijing has firmly pushed back), Sino-US relations are expected to end the year on much better terms than they started. Trump's sometimes haphazard approach to tariffs and trade has been likened to probing with bayonets (a favoured Communist Party phrase), but having faced steel, he is expected to greet Xi with bouquets.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump and Xi can’t defeat each other, economically or otherwise, without grievous self-harm. An uneasy accord is settling in. How stable it will be depends as much on symbolism as substance. Their main objective will be to obtain face from each other. The first step, to grant this, is self-congratulation, which both are exhibiting through their respective media channels. The next step will be mutual praise, the beginning of which is now emerging.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy. Learn more about how we can help you to map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks.

RUSSIA. UNITED STATES. Up in the air

Potential deals, and backchannels, come into view.

Vladimir Putin might offer an "air truce" to satisfy Donald Trump’s demands, Bloomberg said, as Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow Wednesday. Benjamin Netanyahu was mediating between Trump and Putin, Israel's state broadcaster said.

INTELLIGENCE. An air truce may satisfy Washington. Most of the carnage that