Fake it till you take it
Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Denmark, France, and the South China Sea.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. A deal on one hand, a ground war on the other.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A new offensive begins in time and space.
DENMARK. Frederiksen survives, but will be pulled to the left.
FRANCE. Déjà-vu for the Jeffrey Epstein affair.
SOUTH CHINA SEA. Manila floats an energy offramp for Beijing.
And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.
IRAN. Trump-l'œil
A deal on one hand, a ground war on the other.
Donald Trump said Iran “badly” wanted a deal amid reports of a 15-point peace plan and direct negotiations on Thursday to scope a month-long ceasefire. Around 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne were due to be deployed, Reuters said.
INTELLIGENCE. Iran continues to dismiss reports of talks, yet its announcement of negotiated passage for “non-hostile” ships through Hormuz has been inferred as the “very significant prize” Trump claimed to have been offered Tuesday. Maybe so. But should Trump pursue a ground attack, as looks increasingly likely, and should the UAE and Saudi Arabia more directly join the hostilities, as is being messaged, then this apparent concession will be withdrawn.
FOR BUSINESS. Iran’s proposed easing of Hormuz passage has seen Brent fall back to $98. But any ongoing limits on Western and Gulf-linked transport will likely send prices back up. Physical supply remains tight. Unless demand falls in tandem with the damage of recent weeks, prices should go higher. And if this is all just a feint until the Marines or 82nd arrive, then prices will go higher still. Trump’s claims of winning and regime change remain counter to reality.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Springtime for Putin
A new offensive begins in time and space.
Moscow launched almost 1,000 drones in 24 hours, a day after Kyiv said Russian forces were preparing their spring offensive. Ukrainian drones hit the Baltic port of Ust-Luga, hitting oil infrastructure after earlier attacks on Primorsk.
INTELLIGENCE. As in previous offensives and counter-offensives, media will focus