Fire and Epic Fury
Iran, Israel, Ukraine, Russia, Cuba, and the WTO.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Crude surges as events race out of control.
ISRAEL. The Houthis attack Eliat as the IDF heads toward Litani.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv does what it can to stop Ostpolitik’s return.
CUBA. Trump blinks as Putin delivers the oil.
TRADE. Foundations are laid for a post-post-Bretton Woods order.
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IRAN. Take the oil or take the win
Crude surges as events race out of control.
Donald Trump told the Financial Times he could “take the oil” as parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said US troops would be “set on fire” should “secret” ground operations be launched. Brent crude hit $115 in Asian trade.
INTELLIGENCE. Preparations for a ground operation, whether at Kharg, another Gulf island, or the coast of Iran itself, are hardly a secret. The first batch of Marines has arrived in the region. A limited incursion, at least in the initial stages, seems more likely than not. Pakistan is talking up negotiations, but this seems more a push for relevance from a country more vulnerable than most to sustained higher prices, regional escalation and Shia-Sunni tensions.
FOR BUSINESS. A ground incursion will be difficult. Even with the roughly 15,000 Marines and paratroopers being sent, this is a tenth of what the US deployed at the start of the Second Gulf War. Iran has proven its capacity to wage asymmetric warfare even with degraded conventional defences. Yet Trump can’t back out without losing prestige. And even if he wants to extend his pause on energy targets, Israel’s weekend strike on Bushehr has made that moot.
ISRAEL. Warning shots
The Houthis attack Eliat as the IDF heads toward Litani.
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia sent missiles toward Eliat after Israel attacked Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant. Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would “expand” its south Lebanon buffer zone to “definitively thwart” Hezbollah attacks.
INTELLIGENCE. If Hamas in Gaza is a guide, the IDF may need to go far beyond the