Fire and fury
Ukraine, Russia, NATO, Germany, Syria, and the Philippines.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. As strikes escalate, Donetsk begins to buckle.
NATO. Rutte’s servility fails to stop a showdown.
GERMANY. Merz signs off on overdue reforms.
SYRIA. Damascus plunges back into regional crisis.
THE PHILIPPINES. Marcos goes after more of Duterte’s allies.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Fuel’s errand
As strikes escalate, Donetsk begins to buckle.
At least 30 were killed in Kyiv on Thursday, with another four in Sumy on Friday, as Russia increased drone and missile attacks amid a nation-wide fuel shortage, necessitating refined imports. Russian troops advanced into Kostyantynivka.
INTELLIGENCE. Media is focused on the drone war, with attacks on fuel depots, industrial parks, and petrol stations on both sides providing vivid imagery. The New York Times reports a stalled Russian campaign, with the Institute for the Study of War reporting that its spring offensive is proceeding 16 times slower than last year. But any advance in a war of attrition is an advance, and it has reached the fortress belt that stands between Kyiv and Putin’s stated aims.
FOR BUSINESS. What looks like a stalemate could be closer to the endgame. Ukraine has warned of attacks from the north to Kyiv, and the Baltics are on alert for grey-zone incursions via Belarus or Kaliningrad, but the war is now costing Vladimir Putin elite support, and if he can declare a face-saving win, with the completed capture of Donetsk, he will likely do so. Post-Iran energy shortages, and transatlantic disunity, will mean few will block such an offramp.
NATO. From the supine to the ridiculous
Rutte’s servility fails to stop a showdown.
Mark Rutte said next week’s summit in Ankara would prove that allies were honouring their commitments as Donald Trump said it was “ridiculous” for the US “to continue along this one sided path when the relationship is not reciprocal.”
INTELLIGENCE. NATO’s secretary general may have reached the limits of his ability