
The five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. Trump's ventilations may give tactical advantage but at strategic risk.
JAPAN. SOUTH KOREA. Washington’s Asian allies face uncertainty.
BRITAIN. CHINA. The special relationship versus the one with benefits.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. New oil sanctions are unlikely to dent Moscow’s war machine.
PERU. A strong economy can’t make up for weak leadership.
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UNITED STATES. Blowing hot and cold
Trump's ventilations may give tactical advantage but at strategic risk.
Pentagon nominee Pete Hegseth was expected to be grilled on Donald Trump's proposal to acquire Greenland, during Senate confirmation hearings Tuesday. Trump said California’s governor was "incompetent" after earlier calling him “Newscum”.
INTELLIGENCE. A week from his inauguration, Trump continues to campaign. Provocations over Greenland, Canada, Panama and Los Angeles appeal to his base (as well as to some Democrats, like Senator John Fetterman), and there could be tactical gains, including for future negotiations with Ottawa and Copenhagen, not to mention California’s gubernatorial elections in 2026. Yet strategically, Trump not only risks crying wolf but further diminishing US prestige.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump is intentionally provocative. Any higher purpose, like Arctic security or LA’s reconstruction, is secondary. Yet while trash talk is forgiven during elections, there’s reason it’s considered undiplomatic: it rarely works when in power. Every utterance not only has a reputational cost but encourages similar behaviour in others. Confirmation hearings would normally allow for true policy to be discerned but these too could descend into insults.
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JAPAN. SOUTH KOREA. Pacific standstill
Washington’s Asian allies face uncertainty.
Seoul hosted Japan's foreign minister for the first time in seven years Monday. Antony Blinken visited last week. A delegation from Japan's ruling coalition visited Beijing Monday for the first party exchange with the CCP since 2018.
INTELLIGENCE. Joe Biden’s greatest foreign policy achievement may be the cementing of US-South Korea-Japan cooperation – if it lasts.