First, do no Hormuz
Iran, Turkey, the US, Brazil, and Peru.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The blockade TACOs as soon as it begins.
TURKEY. Ankara spies opportunity amid regional chaos.
UNITED STATES. Trump uses familiar tactics to humiliate his rivals.
BRAZIL. Washington plays both sides in a narrowing poll.
PERU. A second round looms between Force and Renewal.
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IRAN. No ship, Sherlock
The blockade TACOs as soon as it begins.
Oil eased as Donald Trump claimed Iran had “called” to “work out a deal” shortly after a US naval blockade of Iranian ports came into force Monday. JD Vance said progress had been made and the ball was in Iran’s court for further talks.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump says Iran wants a deal “very badly”, but available evidence suggests it’s another climbdown. China has warned against interference, claiming Hormuz was “open for us”. NATO has refused to join. Two Iranian tankers have left the Gulf. Retired admiral James Stavridis said the Pentagon had to downsize Trump’s initial order due to a lack of ships. The USS George HW Bush is on its way, but to avoid the Houthis, it must first sail around Africa.
FOR BUSINESS. TACO Tuesday may have come early, but investors should not relax. Iran still controls the Strait. Little oil is getting out, with physical prices at $150. The UN warns a food crisis is building as fertiliser inputs remain stuck. Trump will need to break the ceasefire or accept humiliating terms to change the status quo. A compromise five-year freeze on nuclear enrichment is allegedly being discussed, but this will infuriate Israel and US hardliners.
TURKEY. Hot to trot
Ankara spies opportunity amid regional chaos.
Ankara called for a new Middle East security architecture Monday and said NATO should prepare for a reduction in US support. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Israel “cannot live without an enemy” and was trying to turn Turkey into one.
INTELLIGENCE. Turkey was not only responding to Benjamin Netanyahu’s comments