Flipping the board

China, the US, the EU, Iran, Venezuela, Guyana, and Antarctica.

Detail of Playing Go under Double Screen, Zhou Wenju, 10th century, ink and colour on silk, Palace Museum, Beijing.

The five things you need to know today:

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. Trump walks into a trap of his own making.

• EUROPE. UNITED STATES. A choice between the unrealistic and the unpleasant.

• IRAN. UNITED STATES. Talks are set to happen, just don’t expect much.

• VENEZUELA. GUYANA. Maduro risks a self-fulfilling conspiracy theory.

• ANTARCTICA. China announces a new radio telescope.

Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.

CHINA. UNITED STATES. 3D weiqi

Trump walks into a trap of his own making.

Donald Trump said Monday he would impose an additional 50% tariff if China did not withdraw retaliatory duties of 34% and urged Americans to not be "weak" or "stupid" “panicans”. Beijing said Tuesday it would never accept "blackmail".

INTELLIGENCE. Xi Jinping may well call Trump's bluff. He knows a full-blown trade war would cost Trump more and, believing American decline to be inevitable, may see this as a low-risk way to remove a potential aggressor (i.e., without needing to go to war over Taiwan). Having pursued “dual circulation” economic planning since 2020, Beijing is also more resilient to shocks. And after resisting fiscal stimulus, a trade war may be good for Chinese consumers.

FOR BUSINESS. China still relies on US high-tech goods, but, as the scientific gap narrows, its reliance on Western inputs should lessen. And while China also relies on US consumers, it has long sought to hedge this dependence and move up the manufacturing value chain. Further, China is closer to energy independence, removing a key US trump card. Beyond recent oil discoveries in the South China Sea and Beibu Gulf, it is now far ahead in nuclear and renewables.

Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.

EUROPE. UNITED STATES. Zero-sum, zero chance

A choice between the unrealistic and the unpleasant.

Donald Trump dismissed Brussels’ offer of "zero-for-zero" tariffs on industrial goods and autos late Monday, saying it would need to buy $350 billion worth of energy to get a reprieve. An internal EU document proposed 25% counter-tariffs.

INTELLIGENCE. After its experiences with Russia, Europe won't accept a new bilateral dependence on energy. And