Flooding the zone
Iran, the US, Mexico, Southeast Asia, and the Sahel.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump tries to spin and swamp his way from crisis.
UNITED STATES. Warnings of a drone strike straight from Hollywood.
MEXICO. The president faces her first real defeat.
SOUTHEAST ASIA. US allies gear up for an oil shock.
THE SAHEL. A slow burn starts to spread.
And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.
IRAN. Barrel bombs
Trump tries to spin and swamp his way from crisis.
Oil remained near $100 despite International Energy Agency members releasing 400 million barrels of emergency stocks. Iran said it would go to $200. Donald Trump said the US had “virtually destroyed Iran” but “we got to finish the job.”
INTELLIGENCE. The release amounts to around 20 days’ worth of blocked supplies. With credible reports of sea mines having been laid, and Iran attacking several civilian tankers, the chances of unblocking before then look slim. While Iran continues to be pummelled on land – Trump says “there’s nothing left to target” – the regime is still causing havoc via missiles and drones. Targeted attacks have stepped up. Warnings have been made of underwater strikes.
FOR BUSINESS. Beyond ships that have tried to pass the Strait, Iran has attacked ports in Iraq, Bahrain and Oman. Foreign firms, including Citibank and Goldman Sachs, have ordered employees to leave. Rumours of impending UAE capital controls, set at $100,000, have spooked expats. Iran, meanwhile, has reportedly sold more oil since the war than during the prior equivalent period (12 million barrels, all to China), though sea mines may endanger this too.
UNITED STATES. Shaheds of Sunset
Warnings of a drone strike straight from Hollywood.
The FBI told Californian authorities that Iran was seeking to undertake drone strikes across the West Coast. Gavin Newsom activated an emergency operations room but said there was "no imminent threat". Trump roasted the governor.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump, who said Wednesday that “Newscum” had a “mental