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Japan, Thailand, Cambodia, Ukraine, Russia, Bulgaria, and Venezuela.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
JAPAN. Washington sends mixed messages on a key ally.
THAILAND. CAMBODIA. Anutin dissolves parliament amid new allegations.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Competing economic visions could impair a deal.
BULGARIA. The government resigns but may yet reappear.
VENEZUELA. The escalation path narrows for Maduro and Trump.
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JAPAN. Takaichi for granted
Washington sends mixed messages on a key ally.
Washington said it can have good relations with both Tokyo and Beijing, a day after US bombers flew with Japanese jets in response to joint China-Russian drills near Japanese waters. Japan joined the US’s “Pax Silica” supply chain initiative.
INTELLIGENCE. Sanae Takaichi is being tested by Beijing early in her term. This isn’t unusual, but her minority coalition government is, as is the Trump administration’s relatively hands-off foreign policy. Usually, Chinese coercion would be met with a firmer allied response, but the US is focused on stabilisation. US insistence that Japan rearm (alongside other allies) is thus causing Tokyo to not just absorb higher defence costs, but higher diplomatic risk.
FOR BUSINESS. China is disingenuously behaving as if Takaichi’s defence and supply chain policies are a unilateral return to the 1930s. Yet it knows US policies on burden-sharing, and simply wants to find a sweet spot where the US reduces its presence before local allies pick up the slack. This requires it to simultaneously behave as friend and foe. If it pushes too hard, China may not only force Japan (and others) to hasten their remilitarisation but the US to return.
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THAILAND. CAMBODIA. All about the Benjamins
Anutin dissolves parliament amid new allegations.
Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said he would speak to Donald Trump late Friday as renewed fighting with Cambodia continued. Anutin earlier received royal assent to dissolve parliament and call snap elections for February.
INTELLIGENCE. Anutin’s decision, like the war itself, makes little sense in isolation. An