Flying blind

The EU, the Balkans, Afghanistan, Thailand, Guyana, and Venezuela.

A Crashed Aeroplane, John Singer Sargent, 1918, gouache, pencil and watercolour, Imperial War Museum, London.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• EUROPE. The EU will remain fragile until it can unite.

• THE BALKANS. The region’s divided electorates face a crisis.

• AFGHANISTAN. An earthquake may force the Taliban to behave.

• THAILAND. Political factions struggle to find a compromise.

• GUYANA. VENEZUELA. Signs of a regime change few were expecting.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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EUROPE. Radarless

The EU will remain fragile until it can unite.

Brussels said Moscow was suspected of jamming the GPS on Ursula von der Leyen's plane while visiting Bulgaria. Germany's defence minister said von der Leyen's suggestion of plans to send troops to Ukraine was "premature".

INTELLIGENCE. The EU is facing increasingly brazen grey-zone attacks from Russia, including the recent missile damage to its office in Kyiv. The GPS event, following similar jamming incidents in the Baltic last year, has failed to deter von der Leyen, who is on a tour of seven nations near to Russia, but nor has it caused member states to unite. In addition to avoiding reprisals from Moscow (and Washington) of their own, many are wary of populists at home.

FOR BUSINESS. The risk of another boost to the Russia-friendly Alternative für Deutschland, which leads in the polls, is behind Berlin's reluctance to fully endorse peacekeeping for Kyiv. Whether by conspiracy or chance, scepticism over support for Ukraine is inculcated across the European far right, as it is in the MAGA movement. There are no clear leaders from the centre to shift this narrative, but signs of economic recovery may at least stem populism’s appeal.

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THE BALKANS. Dayton reckoning

The region’s divided electorates face a crisis.

Tens of thousands marched in Belgrade Monday, the latest of 10 months of protests calling for snap elections. Bosnia called early elections for its autonomous Serb Republic, which its regional president, Milorad Dodik, said he’d oppose.

INTELLIGENCE. Bosnia, which is also facing a separate trucker strike over EU and