Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. As Trump buys time, his methods get stale.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Diplomats gather to go through the motions.
MOLDOVA. Maia Sandu builds a Western lifeline.
CYPRUS. Signs of rapprochement in Nicosia.
CHINA. The Nvidia scandal starts to rot from the head down.
Modelled on the Presidential Daily Brief, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you the intelligence you need in the time you have. Subscribe to read all five analyses.
IRAN. Status TACO
As Trump buys time, his methods get stale.
Iran denied there was any deal on Hormuz after oil prices fell as Trump said the war was "effectively over." Trump urged Congress to "stand up" for Pete Hegseth, "perhaps the most popular and successful military official in the country".
INTELLIGENCE. Tehran denies it proposed to reopen the strait for $8 billion, or meet JD Vance, after Trump spoke with Qatar’s prime minister and said he’d continue the “status quo” despite daily calls from Israel to finish the job. Yet not only is the status quo not working for the US – with the release of another 2.7 million strategic reserve barrels and Monday’s evacuation from RAF Mildenhall – but Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered the IRGC to “resolve” matters.
FOR BUSINESS. By reheating the “Trump Always Chickens Out” trade, the US can massage oil prices lower, but an old TACO will soon be inedible and, at best, will only buy time for Hegseth to survive an impending impeachment motion or Benjamin Netanyahu to negotiate a new coalition. Beyond this, Iran risks winning a battle of attrition. While the blockades are hurting, a non-market economy can survive longer than any dependent on confidence and capital.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kabuki Dhabi
Diplomats gather to go through the motions.
Officials from Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington arrived in Abu Dhabi Tuesday for the first trilateral talks since February as Trump claimed both sides were “tired of fighting.” The EU’s Kaja Kallas said Russia was only “pretending” to negotiate.