Fork in the ring road
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Russia, NATO, the UK, and the US.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump talks peace, prepares for war, and builds a pattern.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Netanyahu is pushed into a reluctant ceasefire.
RUSSIA. NATO. Moscow sends a warning to Kyiv’s industrial backers.
BRITAIN. The Mandelson file returns at a moment of dithering.
UNITED STATES. The church comes to grips with a cult of personality.
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IRAN. Around the bend
Trump talks peace, prepares for war, and builds a pattern.
Donald Trump said war “should be ending soon”, suggesting he may go to Islamabad this weekend to sign a peace deal. Iran rebutted reports it had agreed to transfer “nuclear dust” to the US. Physical oil prices reached $210 in Singapore.
INTELLIGENCE. The ceasefire, which expires Tuesday, is holding, and the US has sent signs it may be more flexible in future negotiations, should they occur. But a mutual blockade in Hormuz and the arrival of more troops in the region continue to suggest that the conflict could as easily escalate. As the war approaches its 50th day this weekend, however, one thing is clear: escalation and de-escalation, often both at once, is just how Trump goes round in circles.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s supporters see his dealmaking style as 5D chess. His detractors see it as compensation for no strategy. Either way, it’s unlikely to lead to an outcome soon, which is bad news for growing oil shortages. A similar approach in Gaza took eight months to work. It’s yet to yield an end to war in Ukraine. Tehran, as it were, still holds the same cards it had at the start of the truce. The US naval blockade isn’t trivial, but it’s costly and not total.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Truce but verify
Netanyahu is pushed into a reluctant ceasefire.
A 10-day ceasefire began Thursday after Donald Trump spoke to Benjamin Netanyahu and Joseph Aoun by phone. Trump said he would soon host both leaders in Washington and this might become his tenth successful peace deal.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump said Netanyahu and Aoun would speak yesterday, following