Fourth time unlucky
Iran, Iraq, the US, Ukraine, Russia, and Malaysia.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. A new round of strikes goes beyond mere negotiation.
IRAQ. Ali al-Zaidi visits Washington at an awkward moment.
UNITED STATES. Lindsey Graham likely died of natural causes.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv reshuffles chairs as it sinks Moscow’s ships.
MALAYSIA. Anwar Ibrahim faces a coalition reckoning.
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IRAN. More than you bargained for
A new round of strikes goes beyond mere negotiation.
Iran began a new wave of retaliatory strikes after the US launched a fourth round of attacks late Sunday, including on civilian infrastructure and energy targets. Mojtaba Khamenei wrote that revenge for his father was the “will of the people”.
INTELLIGENCE. Oil futures, under $80, still price a return to negotiation, as Tehran and Washington seek to determine who controls the Strait, which has effectively closed again. Yet with each new strike, new demands are being set, dragging the belligerents further from the 17 June Islamabad Memorandum, signed by Donald Trump in Versailles. Further, with Ali Khamenei now buried, Mojtaba is incentivised to act tough as he establishes authority from hiding.
FOR BUSINESS. Rather than creating pressure to unpick the vagueness of the MoU's Article 5 ("Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only"), the strikes could simply see the parties pursue old maximalist demands, with the Strait's closure indefinite. This will favour Iran more than the US, insofar as Tehran's grip on its people makes the economic costs politically survivable.
IRAQ. Stuck in the Middle East
Ali al-Zaidi visits Washington at an awkward moment.
Ali al-Zaidi left for the US Monday, his first overseas visit as prime minister, after his coalition affirmed support for closer economic ties and the disarming of Iran-backed Shia militias. Soldiers in pre-dawn raids arrested 47 officials for graft.
INTELLIGENCE. Zaidi, a business scion, is portrayed as Iraq's Trump, but he