
In today’s dispatch:
FRANCE. Macron’s troubles will outlast the games.
UNITED STATES. A strong GDP print won’t help Kamala Harris.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Harris takes a tougher line, which Netanyahu will ignore.
SUDAN. The backers of a proxy civil war want an exit.
VENEZUELA. Key observers withdraw from a flawed election.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
FRANCE. Descent from Mount Olympus
Macron’s troubles will outlast the games.
Emmanuel Macron said France would "shine" during the Olympics Thursday. He dismissed the New Popular Front's candidate for premier, saying it could wait for after the games. France was named host for the 2030 Winter Olympics.
INTELLIGENCE. The self-described “Jupiterian” president has spent the week meeting dignitaries as he tries to focus France on the Olympics and the August holidays, rather than the destroyed government his snap election has bequeathed. But amid security concerns and rancour from the parliamentary left, which achieved a feat of sorts by agreeing a proposed prime minister (even if Macron’s coalition is in no rush to agree), his summer will be at work.
FOR BUSINESS. Macron’s polling remains at a nadir and he’s unlikely to get a boost from French wins at the Olympics, as Jacques Chirac did at the 1998 World Cup. A difficult in-tray awaits once a government is formed, notably on France’s fiscal position. The Olympics could yield an additional € 5.2 billion in revenue, amid an economic boost of up to €11 billion, but economists estimate France will need to cut spending by €112 billion over the next decade.
UNITED STATES. Growing pains
A strong GDP print won’t help Kamala Harris.
The economy grew at an annualised 2.8% in the second quarter, above forecasts and 1.4% in Q1. Consumer, business and government spending all rose, offsetting lower exports and construction. Rate cut expectations for July fell slightly.
INTELLIGENCE. Markets had anticipated the Fed to hold this month, and that’s now almost certain. What’s less certain is a cut in