France: In with the old

Also: Germany, the US, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Myanmar.

"A faut esperer q'eu.s jeu la finira bentot" (You should hope that this game will be over soon), unknown engraver, 1789, Collection Michel Hennin, Bibliothèque nationale de France, Paris.

In today’s dispatch:

• FRANCE. Macron appoints the consummate insider.

• GERMANY. Policy is moving to the right, with or without the AfD.

• UNITED STATES. Not all the candidates’ ideas are bad, but many are.

• EGYPT. ETHIOPIA. A confluence of disputes could lead to breakthrough, or breakdown.

• MYANMAR. Karen insurgents question who’s really in charge.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

FRANCE. In with the old

Macron appoints the consummate insider.

Emmanuel Macron named former EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, 73, prime minister Thursday. Barnier, whose centre-right Republican party came fourth, said he would address the "anger and grievances" of the French people.

INTELLIGENCE. Barnier is a seasoned negotiator and safe pair of hands, but his appointment isn’t being seen as that of a technocratic compromise but of a right-wing coup. The leftist New Popular Front, which came first in July’s legislative elections, said it would vote against Barnier’s government, whose first priority will be budget repair. Its second will be channelling far-right anger away the National Rally ahead of the next presidential election, due in 2027.

FOR BUSINESS. Rather than draw votes back to the centre, Barnier’s appointment could be the best possible outcome for the National Rally. It gets a prime minister broadly sympathetic to its policies, but it won’t be blamed when things go wrong, which is almost inevitable in such a divided parliament and with so many delayed structural issues needing to be addressed. Barnier could in fact be the Republicans’ swan song (as well as that of Macron’s Ensemble).

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GERMANY. Alter-alternative

Policy is moving to the right, with or without the AfD.

Illegal migrants entering from Belarus could be sent to Rwanda, Germany's migration commissioner said Thursday. Members of Olaf Scholz's government said they held "positive" talks with the opposition on tightening border security.

INTELLIGENCE. Following a spate of stabbings and bruising election losses in Thuringia and Saxony, Scholz’s three-party coalition is not