France: Left in the lurch
Also: Ukraine, Russia, South Korea, the US, North Korea, China, and Pakistan.
In today’s dispatch:
FRANCE. The New Popular Front starts to break apart.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv extends an olive branch, of sorts, to Moscow.
SOUTH KOREA. UNITED STATES. A spy scandal comes between allies.
NORTH KOREA. CHINA. Pyongyang uses its friendship with Moscow to poke Beijing.
PAKISTAN. Islamabad’s domestic neuralgia distracts from its strategic dilemmas.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
FRANCE. Left in the lurch
The New Popular Front starts to break apart.
A former climate negotiator was proposed as prime minister by the Socialists, Greens and Communists Tuesday. The Communists said the left’s coalition could be "shipwrecked" if its largest member, Unsubmissive France, did not agree.
INTELLIGENCE. Making communists seem moderate is one thing, scuppering your one and only chance at governing is another. But the far-left's Jean-Luc Mélenchon looks likely to do both, taking his Unsubmissive France back to the streets to protest the counter-revolution. While Mélenchon party is the largest in the NFP’s parliamentary bloc, it’s ill-suited to compromise. This may allow the Socialists, and perhaps the Greens, to join Macron’s Ensemble instead.
FOR BUSINESS. The outcome is a boon to Macron, but just as the NFP proved unstable, a coalition between the left and the centre (particularly if it involves the Republican centre-right) could be even more rickety. And with Mélenchon free to provoke riots on the streets, the backdrop to Assembly disagreements could be even more volatile. Until new elections can be called (next year at the earliest), durable government beyond a technocratic caretaker looks unlikely.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Second thoughts
Kyiv extends an olive branch, of sorts, to Moscow.
The Kremlin responded cautiously Tuesday after Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia should attend a second peace summit in November. Donald Trump will push for an “immediate” peace, Viktor Orban said in a letter to EU leaders.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump has doubled down on his promise to end the war in Ukraine by appointing war sceptic JD Vance as running mate. But even if
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