
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily global intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
FRANCE. Macrooned
A bad day for the president but not necessarily the republic.
The National Rally (RN) and its allies received around 33% of first-round votes Sunday in a two-stage election the far-right party is predicted to win. Emmanuel Macron's party received around 21% in early counting, with 28% for the left.
INTELLIGENCE. The election wasn’t the wipe-out pundits have painted it as, but RN is within sight of an overall majority, assuming voters for the Republicans and other centre-right parties join a third or so of Macron’s centrist Ensemble base in a second-round swing. The left-wing New Popular Front requires almost all Ensemble’s votes to achieve victory, a heroic assumption. The Euro, French bonds and European stock futures were up in Asian trade.
FOR BUSINESS. Some have attributed market relief to RN’s failure to secure an outright first-round win. But in French politics this was never likely. It’s more probable the confident showing is due to the socialists not doing as well as feared. Whereas the left has proposed heavy spending and economic regulation, the RN has moderated its platform. Its radicalism – if that term can still be properly applied – is more around environmental and socio-cultural issues.
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UNITED STATES. Agency problem
Americans wake up to a potentially momentous ruling.
Lawyers spent the weekend unpacking the Supreme Court's overturning of the 1984 Chevron precedent, as well as its ruling on a January 6 riot obstruction charge. The court's term will finish with a decision on presidential immunity.
INTELLIGENCE. With the media fixated on the presidential race – and whether Joe